Bitcoin (BTC) Back of the napkin valuation for the coming capital reallocation
https://ift.tt/3sYRLJC
Ok, so I read [this](https://ift.tt/3eZOZMd) WSJ article that states that “About 16% of the U.S. population holds or has held cryptocurrencies, according to Pew Research Center.”
For a frame of reference, the % of U.S. population that is invested in stocks has been about [55%](https://ift.tt/3iAPk8j)
So, if the thesis of crypto comes to fruition, and it becomes its own asset class, we are likely to see a large scale capital reallocation over the coming years. Potentially, upwards of 39% (55-16) of the U.S. population will have some exposure to the new asset class.
39% of the U.S. population is about 128,700,000.
If each of those investors has about [$30,000](https://ift.tt/3F6ZLuC) in investments, and reallocates 20%, or $6,000, we have a $772.2 BILLION capital infusion into the ecosystem.
Lets just say 50% of that money goes into BTC within 5 years. That’s $386 BILLION, or 43%, of the current network value for Bitcoin (@ 890B). A now total network value of 1.276 TRILLION.
Furthermore, lets assume that 40% of bitcoin are being held as investments or otherwise dormant, meaning that 60%, or roughly 12,400,000, bitcoin is free floating.
(1.276T / 12.4M) This reveals a BTC price point of roughly $102,903 at the end of this capital reallocation time frame, equivalent to a 120% gain from the price point now of $46,673
This is all quick maths, (and just focused on the U.S. market) so hit me with some feedback on the logic or anything else as I’d like to hear your thesis for the next 5 years or so.
Cryptocurrency
