Is Stock-to-Flow “dead”?
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Recently a lot of people on Twitter have been declaring Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin price “dead” because we failed to break 100k and price reversed instead of going up in a straight line. The thing is, the original Stock-to-Flow article ([https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25](https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25)) points to two things happening after the 2020 halving:
1. Bitcoin marketcap should reach 1 trn
2. This should translate to Bitcoin price of $55k
(“Next halving is May 2020. Current SF of 25 will double to 50, very close to gold (SF 62).The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000.”)
So, essentially, the key predictions of this model have been realised. BTC hit and exceeded both 1 trn marketcap and 55k per unit price.
The S2FX model ([https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12](https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12)), on the other hand, looks like it is wrong. It doesn’t look like we are hitting anywhere near $288k this cycle 🙂
S2F model has been one of the key pieces of research for me that helped me make the decision to go all-in on BTC in early 2020 (pre-halving). Needless to say, it turned out to be one of the best decisions I ever made.
I guess what I would like to know is people’s informed opinions on how successful they think S2F model has been in predicting BTC price and do you think it will be useful in the future? I would love to ask those questions to Plan B himself, but that is kind of difficult 🙂
Cryptocurrency
