https://ift.tt/3pwTyn6
Photo by David McNew/Getty Images
Getty Images
Cycles research relies upon static and dynamic cycles. The seasonal cycle is static because it does not change very much over the years. The annual monthly histogram of expected return for light crude oil is depicted below.
Monthly Oil Seasonality
This is the monthly expected return for the oil price.
Cycles Research Investments LLC
The dynamic monthly cycle is graphed below. It is constructed from the most profitable cycles that are in operation now. The top cycle is 281.5 days long. The light gray line is the cycle; the heavy black line is the price; and the buy and sell signals are in green and red. Note the close fit. All of the signals depicted below have been profitable. This cycle has been most reliable for almost two years.
Monthly Oil Cycle
The monthly cycle and price have had a close fit for two years.
Cycles Research Investments LLC
The cycle is expanded below and points to a low in the last week of January. Refer to the first graph and note that the January bottom has been the low point in the beginning of a three-month rally into April. January 17th has been the seasonal low, and the monthly cycle projected low is January 22nd.
The conclusion is that the downtrend that began in November will conclude in the third week of next month. The projected high for this next move up is in late April or early May. Price will likely be at a new high at the spring top.
Monthly Oil Cycle Projecting A Low
The accurate monthly oil cycle points to a low in late January.
Cycles Research Investments LLC
Financial Services
