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My December Employment Preview
Goldman December Payrolls Preview
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. There were 120 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added in December, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1%.
And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Week Ago |
Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 62.4% | — | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 207.0 | — | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 586,391 | 315,851 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 95,250 | 67,842 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 1,245 | 1,088 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
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Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.
New cases are at record levels. It appears likely hospitalizations will exceed the previous 7-day average record of 124,031 a year ago.
Fortunately, deaths are still well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.
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