https://ift.tt/3f8gdQw cycles theorem – speculation about extended cycles.

Hi all!

As we all know BTC had cycles based on “halvings” on average 4 years. It is all about reducing BTC supply to miners till all BTC (21 millions – not including frozen coins) will be mined fully. There is a model created by Plan B called STF (Stock To Flow – more info here [https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25](https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25)) which presents it perfectly.

And here is my idea.
1. What if BTC cycles extend in time from cycle to cycle (because halvings have less impact on the entire circulating BTC supply).
E.g. first time it was 3 years and 9 months, then 3 years 11 months, maybe now it will be 4 years and 6 months for cycle?

2. What are the outcomes of prolonged cycles?

It is going to be more flattened (ups/downs from cycle to cycle won’t be so sudden. This will explain why we had so much consolidation this year, and not a high pick in December.

Ofc supply is limited, so the long-term direction is to go up (to the moon). Maybe that is why is it not too clever to predict the bubble end and next bubble beginning to maximize income but just HODL?

Or it is just bubble end and I try to find some explanation 😃

Any thoughts?

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