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Eight years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.
This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2021 by age, and I’ve updated the table from the previous post.
The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2021 (released this month), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030.
In 2021, 6 of the top 7 cohorts were under 40 (the Boomers are fading away), and by 2030 the top 10 cohorts will be the youngest 10 cohorts.
There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing.
As I noted in 2014, this was positive for apartments, and more recently positive for housing.
| Population: Largest 5-Year Cohorts by Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largest Cohorts |
2010 | 2021 | 2030 | |
| 1 | 45 to 49 years | 30 to 34 years | 35 to 39 years | |
| 2 | 50 to 54 years | 25 to 29 years | 40 to 44 years | |
| 3 | 15 to 19 years | 35 to 39 years | 30 to 34 years | |
| 4 | 20 to 24 years | 54 to 59 years | 25 to 29 years | |
| 5 | 25 to 29 years | 15 to 19 years | 20 to 24 years | |
| 6 | 40 to 44 years | 20 to 24 years | 45 to 49 years | |
| 7 | 10 to 14 years | 10 to 14 years | 5 to 9 years | |
| 8 | 5 to 9 years | 60 to 64 years | 10 to 14 years | |
| 9 | Under 5 years | 45 to 49 years | Under 5 years | |
| 10 | 35 to 39 years | 50 to 54 years | 15 to 19 years | |
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph, based on the 2021 population estimate, shows the U.S. population by age in July 2021 according to the Census Bureau.
Note that the largest age groups are all in their late-20s or 30s. There is also a large cohort in their mid-teens.
And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017).
Note the younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010. In 2021 the millennials have taken over and the boomers are off the list.
This is why – a number of years ago – I was so positive on housing. And this is still positive for the economy.
| Population: Most Common Ages by Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2021 | 2030 | ||
| 1 | 50 | 31 | 39 | |
| 2 | 49 | 30 | 40 | |
| 3 | 19 | 29 | 38 | |
| 4 | 48 | 32 | 37 | |
| 5 | 47 | 28 | 36 | |
| 6 | 46 | 33 | 35 | |
| 7 | 20 | 35 | 41 | |
| 8 | 45 | 36 | 30 | |
| 9 | 18 | 34 | 34 | |
| 10 | 52 | 27 | 33 | |
Note: 2030 single age is based on an earlier Census projection since the 2017 projections do not include single age groups.
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